Globe Life shares dropped 8.09% to $154.79 on Friday after Piper Sandler analyst Paul Newsome downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight and slashed his price target to $165 from $200. Newsome's note argued the insurer is no longer a "predictable safe haven," citing bigger medical claims, irregular Medicare supplement claims and softer 2027 guidance. The move pushed the stock's slide over the past five trading days to 8.28% and its decline over the past 30 trading days to 9.57%, pulling shares well off their 52-week high of $191.55 and closer to the 52-week low of $127.85.
The downgrade followed a bumpy earnings report from Wednesday, when Globe Life posted third-quarter net income of $361 million, or $4.62 per share, down 2% from $4.73 a year earlier. Adjusted earnings of $4.84 per share missed the $4.88 analyst estimate, even as revenue rose 5.2% to $1.607 billion and came in slightly ahead of expectations. Management also trimmed full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $15.35 to $15.65 from a prior $15.55 to $15.95, below the $15.71 analyst estimate, and issued 2027 guidance of $16.10 to $17.10 against a $16.50 estimate.
On the earnings call, executives pointed to operational headwinds in the company's United American General Agency Division, where a process change at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services led to elevated claims. The Evri group health business also saw higher-than-expected claims severity, which weighed on underwriting margin and helped explain why shares initially fell 3.4% the morning after results before extending losses through the week.
Not every analyst turned negative. TD Cowen's Andrew Kligerman maintained his Buy rating on Friday, though he also lowered his price target, to $215 from $225, reflecting the same earnings pressures without abandoning confidence in the longer-term story. With the stock now trading at a steep discount to peers on a trailing earnings basis, investors will be watching whether the claims pressure in the Medicare and group health books proves temporary or signals a more lasting shift in Globe Life's underwriting trends.