Tesla shares climbed 3.76% to $368.06 from $354.72 in the session, as speculation about a potential merger between Tesla and Elon Musk's SpaceX moved from chatter to specific price targets. RBC Capital Markets said SpaceX could acquire Tesla for $480 per share in a deal that would create a combined company worth $3.74 trillion, though the bank noted Tesla shareholders would receive just 48% of the merged business, down from the 54% RBC had estimated in July. Investor Gary Black offered a lower figure, predicting a $420 SpaceX buyout of Tesla with an announcement possible in the next few weeks.
Not everyone is convinced a deal is imminent. RBC's own lead autos analyst, Tom Narayan, cautioned that combining the two companies is "not so easy," pointing to the complexity of structuring a transaction between a public automaker and a still-private rocket and satellite company. The merger talk has been amplified by Tesla's unveiling of a Roadster billed as capable of flight, a demonstration that helped lift Tesla 32 spots on the Roundtable 100 ranking, according to analysts cited in that coverage.
Skeptics pushed back on how much weight to give the Roadster reveal itself. Investor Ross Gerber dismissed the unveiling as a marketing exercise, calling it an "Old Hot Wheels Dream" rather than a sign of an imminent product. The stock's bounce also comes against a choppier backdrop: Tesla is still down 2.64% over the last five trading days and off 2.21% over the last 30, and remains well below its 52-week high of $498.83, even as it sits comfortably above its 52-week low of $297.38.
The next real test arrives Wednesday, when Tesla reports earnings. Tesla has moved 8% or more after 10 of its last 15 earnings reports, a pattern that has investors bracing for volatility regardless of how the merger speculation resolves. Whether the SpaceX talk translates into any concrete announcement, or fades the way the Roadster buzz did in the prior week, will likely shape sentiment heading into that report.